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Propane and Natural Gas – Birds of a Feather Not Flying Together

Propane is a versatile source of energy common in rural areas that are “beyond the main” of utility natural gas service.  It is often used for home space and water heating and cooking, as well as for agricultural uses such as crop drying, irrigation pump fueling, space heating in green houses, pig and poultry brooding, frost protection, standby electricity generation, and even food refrigeration.

Where does propane come from?

Propane is produced in association with natural gas (along with other natural gas liquids, or NGLs) and is also a byproduct of crude oil refining.  Because propane is a gas at atmospheric pressure, it is compressed into a liquid state under moderate pressure for storage and delivery.

The shale gas revolution has led to dramatic increases in natural gas production.

As previously reported, US natural gas prices have remained low for some time.  This is despite the existence of many influences that more recently would have driven natural gas prices upward (see Natural Gas Market Update, June 2018).

Because propane is produced in association with natural gas, along with the dramatic increase in US natural gas production has come a dramatic increase in US propane production.  As natural gas production has increased, so has NGL production.

With such an increase in propane supply, propane prices, like natural gas prices, are low – right?

No.

While natural gas prices have remained low (red line below), propane prices have risen significantly (blue line below).

    

Why?

Exports of propane from the US have grown and continue to grow.

Conclusion

Rural residential and agricultural customers who rely on propane rather than natural gas are not benefiting from the shale gas revolution to the extent that others are in the US.  Increasing propane exports are a major driver of this phenomenon.  This is another illustration of the complicated dynamics underlying energy commodity markets and an example of how those markets can change over time, often in unexpected ways.

Note:  Evelyn Teel contributed to this article.

The Avalon Advantage – Visit our website at www.avalonenergy.us, call us at 888-484-8096, or email us at info@avalonenergy.us.

Please feel free to share this article.  If you do, please email or post the web link.  Unauthorized copying, retransmission, or republication is prohibited.

Copyright 2018 by Avalon Energy® Services LLC

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Electricity, meet Rock

For several years, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has been investigating the potential effects of intense geomagnetic storms on electric utility infrastructure.  In 2016 they concluded,

“A severe geomagnetic storm could disrupt the nation’s power grid for months, potentially leading to widespread blackouts.  Resulting damage and disruption from such an event could cost more than $1 trillion, with a full recovery time taking months to years.” (1)

Bloomberg recently noted that in an upcoming report, the USGS more specifically identifies a stretch of the Interstate 95 corridor as particularly at risk of power outages related to geomagnetic storms.

This corridor is largely underlain by Paleozoic (very old) crystalline rock that acts as an insulator, reflecting back incoming energy from the sun, thus giving that energy a second chance to damage utility infrastructure.  Damaged electrical infrastructure, particularly utility transformers, can take many months to replace.

“Through a stroke of bad luck, the worst of these rocks basically traces the path of I-95 from Richmond, Virginia, to Portland, Maine, passing through Washington, New York and Boston along the way.” (2)

Putting aside for the moment the notion that rocks can be inherently good or bad, concerning how this connection between electricity and rocks may impact the electric grid, solutions are not simple.  Some may look to off-grid self-generation and battery storage for protection.  But, if a geomagnetic storm is strong enough to impact the grid, it also may impact the electric infrastructure at individual customers’ sites.

Faraday cages are a potential solution.  Faraday cages also may provide protection against EMPs (electromagnetic pulses).  More on this in the weeks ahead.

References:

Evelyn Teel, Ralph Russell and Jeff Dowdell contributed to this article.

The Avalon Advantage – Visit our website at www.AvalonEnergy.US, email us at info@avalonenergy.us, or call us at 888-484-8096.

Please feel free to share this article.  If you do, please email or post the web link.  Unauthorized copying, retransmission, or republication is prohibited.

Copyright 2018 by Avalon Energy® Services LLC

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Future of Bethesda: Building the Area’s Identity & Investing in its Growth

And there is more.  Avalon Energy Services is pleased to announce it will co-sponsor Bisnow’s July 26 educational networking event, “Future of Bethesda: Building the Area’s Identity & Investing in its Growth.”  Topics to be discussed include:

  1. How can you capitalize on the growth promised by the Marriott headquarters and hotel?
  2. What type of tenant is ideal for Carr’s Apex Building?
  3. Will Bethesda ever see a nightlife scene? Does it want one?
  4. With a historically strong retail market, is Bethesda immune to the asset class’s national uncertainty?
  5. How can Bethesda develop a unique identity as a suburb of DC?

Find more information about this exciting event here.

Friends of Avalon Energy Services can receive 20% off the price of admission by using the following code: AES20UZ1A5.

As previously announced, Avalon Energy Services is also co-sponsoring Bisnow’s July 24 event, “Baltimore-Washington Industrial & Logistics Forecast: How Quickly is the Market Actually Growing and Can You Capitalize on It?”  Check out our previous post for more details and the Avalon Energy Services friends’ discount code.

The Avalon Advantage – Visit our website at www.avalonenergy.us, call us at 888-484-8096, or email us at info@avalonenergy.us.

Please feel free to share this article.  If you do, please email or post the web link.  Unauthorized copying, retransmission, or republication is prohibited.

Copyright 2018 by Avalon Energy® Services LLC

 

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Baltimore-Washington Industrial & Logistics Forecast

Avalon Energy Services is pleased to announce it is co-sponsoring Bisnow’s July 24 educational networking event, “Baltimore-Washington Industrial & Logistics Forecast: How Quickly is the Market Actually Growing and Can You Capitalize on It?”  Topics to be discussed include:

  1. With more and more companies adapting to an e-commerce model, are they prepared for the industrial world? Are they making educated decisions in their industrial moves, leases and logistics?
  2. As more developers grow their industrial portfolios, will this create healthy competition for the marketplace?
  3. How will the trucking labor shortage impact drayage costs? Will self-driving vehicles play a role in shipping?
  4. As vacancy rates continue to decline, how high will rent rise?
  5. Is there a chance we are over estimating e-commerce’s growth, or will its exponential growth continue as expected by many?

Find more information about this exciting event here.  Friends of Avalon Energy Services can receive 20% off the price of admission by using the following code: AES20S31XL.

The Avalon Advantage – Visit our website at www.avalonenergy.us, call us at 888-484-8096, or email us at info@avalonenergy.us.

Please feel free to share this article.  If you do, please email or post the web link.  Unauthorized copying, retransmission, or republication is prohibited.

Copyright 2018 by Avalon Energy® Services LLC

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Natural Gas Market Update, June 2018

Natural gas prices remain low and below their declining 21-year trend.  See graph below.

The prices presented here are for delivery at the Henry Hub in Southern Louisiana.  Natural gas prices in other producing areas of the US, such as Northeastern Pennsylvania, the Permian Basin, and the Williston Basin, are significantly lower.  The prices here are also in nominal dollars.  If plotted in real dollars, the downward trend would be even more pronounced (see These are Days to Remember).

Despite the current low price environment, there are a number of factors putting upward pressure on natural gas prices, including:

  • Increasing liquified natural gas (LNG) exports
    • Cheniere Sabine Pass trains 1-4 online
    • Cove Point terminal on the Chesapeake Bay ramping up
    • 11 additional liquification trains along the Gulf Coast in the works to come online in the next five years
  • Increasing pipeline exports to Mexico
    • Up more than 300% since the Great Recession
  • Increased industrial demand
    • Particularly in the petrochemical industry
  • Increased demand for natural gas-fired electricity generation
    • As coal plants retire
  • Natural gas storage levels down
    • Currently 25% below five-year average at this time of year

Given these influences, how do natural gas prices look in the futures market?  Low and continuing their decline.  See the graph below.

After peaking at $3.16/mmBtu during the winter of 2018/2019, natural gas prices remain below $3/mmBtu for the remainder of the 60-month forward period.

What is driving this?

Supply.  More specifically, dramatically increasing supply.

Natural gas production is up 7 Bcf/day from this time last year to 79 Bcf/day.  The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects US natural gas production will reach 83 Bcf/day by December 2018.

To see how much things have changed, read these older natural gas market updates:

Natural Gas Market Update October 2014

Natural Gas Market Update November 2013

Natural Gas Prices – Time to Hit the Panic Button?

Natural Gas Price – Looking Ahead January 2012

Natural Gas Price Drivers (January 2012)

As a result, natural gas (and electricity prices) are currently attractive—making this a good time to consider locking in your supply needs.

Note:  Evelyn Teel contributed to this article.

The Avalon Advantage – Visit our website at www.avalonenergy.us, call us at 888-484-8096, or email us at info@avalonenergy.us.

Please feel free to share this article.  If you do, please email or post the web link.  Unauthorized copying, retransmission, or republication is prohibited.

Copyright 2018 by Avalon Energy® Services LLC

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NCAC – 22nd Annual Washington Energy Policy Conference

ONE WEEK FROM TODAY

Secure your spot here: https://www.ncac-usaee.org/event-2845352

Energy Technologies and Innovations: A Disturbance in the [Market] Force

Thursday, April 12, 2018, 8:30 AM to 6:00 PM

The George Washington University

Keynote speakers:

Mark P. Mills, Senior Fellow, Manhattan Institute

Gil Quiniones, President and CEO, New York Power Authority

In addition to these keynote speakers, the following panels will be held:

PANEL 1: The Grid Awakens: Electricity Generation and Demand
Phil Jones, Executive Director, Alliance for Transportation Electrification
Bryce Smith, Founder and CEO, LevelTen Energy
John Zahurancik, COO, Fluence
Barney Rush, Board Member ISO New England, Rush Energy Consulting (moderator)

PANEL 2: Hydrocarbons Strike Back: Innovations to Maintain the Status Quo

John Eichberger, Executive Director, Fuels Institute
Sid Green, President, Enhanced Production Inc.
Mike Trammel, Vice President for Government, Environmental, and Regulatory Affairs, Excelerate
Rita Beale, CEO and President, Energy Unlimited (moderator)

PANEL 3: Innovation: A New Hope in Energy

Bill Farris, Associate Laboratory Director for Innovation, Partnering, and Outreach, National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Elisabeth Olson, Economist, Office of Energy Policy & Innovation, FERC
Christopher Peoples, Managing Partner, Peoples Partners and Associates
Devin Hartman, Electricity Policy Manager, R Street Institute (moderator)

PANEL 4: Return of Energy Policy

Adele Morris, Policy Director for Climate and Energy Economics, Brookings
Jason Stanek, Senior Counsel, House Energy & Commerce Committee, Subcommittee on Energy
Pat Wood, Chairman, Dynegy
Kevin Book, Managing Partner, ClearView Energy Partners (moderator)

Note: Chatham House Rules apply.

Full Agenda and to register –> http://www.ncac-usaee.org/events.php#event151

RSVP: Required

Conference Information:

Organizer: Michael Ratner, NCAC-USAEE Vice President (mratner@crs.loc.gov) / 202-707-9529
Venue: The George Washington University, The Marvin Center, 3rd floor, Continental Ballroom, 800 21st Street, NW, Washington, DC 20052

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Balancing Congestion

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission approved a change in PJM’s (the Mid-Atlantic grid operator) tariff, allowing them to shift what are called “balancing congestion” costs to load serving entities.  FERC approved PJM’s tariff revision with an effective date of June 1.  Suppliers have indicated that they intend to pass through these charges.  Suppliers include a change of law or regulation provision in their agreements.  Basically, they commit to a fixed price, but allow for pass-throughs when there is a change in law or regulation.  Please email or call to discuss the potential impact of these charges to you.

The Avalon Advantage – Visit our website at www.AvalonEnergy.US, email us at info@avalonenergy.us, or call us at 888-484-8096.

Please feel free to share this article.  If you do, please email or post the web link.  Unauthorized copying, retransmission, or republication is prohibited.

Copyright 2017 by Avalon Energy® Services LLC

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The 21st Annual Washington Energy Policy Conference

ONE WEEK FROM TODAY!      
REGISTRATION CLOSES SOON
The 21st Annual Washington Energy Policy Conference
Energy Reset? 
Conflicting Forces in the Energy Space
Thursday, April 6, 2017
9:00 a.m to 6 p.m.
George Mason University 
Schar School of Policy and Government

Founders Hall – 3351 Fairfax Drive, Arlington, VA 22201
Keynote Speakers: 
Thad Hill, President and Chief Executive Officer, Calpine Corp
Thomas Pyle, President, American Energy Alliance
Moderators: 

Adam Sieminski,  

James R. Schlesinger, Chair for Energy and Geopolitics, CSIS
Melanie Kenderdine, Former Director of the Office of Energy Policy and Systems Analysis U.S. Department of Energy
In addition to our keynote speakers, we are pleased to announce the following panels:
 
PANEL 1: U.S. Petroleum and Natural Gas Markets: Globalization vs. Protectionism
Erica Bowman, Chief Economist, American Petroleum Institute
Michael Cohen, Director and Head of Energy Commodities Research, Barclays
Gary Hufbauer, Reginald Jones Senior Fellow, Peterson Insitute for International Economics
 
PANEL 2: Electricity Generation – Free Markets vs. Government Influence
Melanie Kenderdine, Former Director of the Office of Energy Policy and Systems Analysis, U.S. Department of Energy (Moderator)
Stephen Munro, Editor, New Energy Finance, Bloomberg
Tom Matzzie, President and CEO, CleanChoice Energy
Ray Shepherd, Vice President and Senior Counsel, Peabody Energy
 
PANEL 3: Energy Infrastructure: Slow Fixes vs. Economic Drivers
Bruce McKay, Senior Energy Policy Director, Federal Affairs, Dominion
Christi Tezak, Managing Director, ClearView Energy Partners
Terry Turpin, Director of the Office of Energy Projects, FERC
 
PANEL 4: Point/Counterpoint
David Goldwyn, President, Goldwyn Global Stategies
Bob McNally, President, The Rapidan Group
Barney Rush, Rush Energy Consulting & Board Member, ISO – New England (Moderator)
Note: Chatham House Rules apply.
Full Agenda and to register –>  http://www.ncac-usaee.org/events.php#event151
RSVP: Required
         
 

DIRECTIONS TO ARLINGTON CAMPUS (3351 North Fairfax Dr., Arlington) by Metro

Take the Orange Line to the Virginia Square/GMU station. The Arlington Campus is approximately 2 blocks. Take the escalator to the street level, and turn to face Fairfax Drive. Across the street and to the right, you will see the FDIC building. Cross the street and continue past the FDIC building. The Arlington Campus is on the left.
For Information:
Elaine Levin, NCAC-USAEE Vice President
202-360-6046
Joel Hicks, George Mason University, Schar School of Policy and Government
703-447-3820
All the best.
Jim McDonnell
President
US Association for Energy Economics, National Capital Area Chapter (NCAC-USAEE)
888-484-8096
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Maryland Renewable Energy Portfolio Standard (RPS) – Veto Override

Last week, the Maryland House and Senate voted to override Governor Larry Hogan’s 2016 veto of the 2016 Clean Energy Jobs bill.  As a result, Maryland’s Renewable Energy Portfolio Standard (RPS) will increase from 20% in 2022 to 25% in 2020.  The graph below shows the effect of the original RPS rule in blue overlaid with the newly amended rule in red.

Maryland’s solar “carve out” will increase as well as shown below.

Regulatory guidance is that customers with executed retail electric contracts in place prior to the effective date of the override are grandfathered from the additional RPS costs until the expiration of the grandfathered contract.

This is a good time to consider extending your electricity supply contracts to year 2021.

The Avalon Advantage – Visit our website at www.AvalonEnergy.US, email us at info@avalonenergy.us, or call us at 888-484-8096.

Please feel free to share this article.  If you do, please email or post the web link.  Unauthorized copying, retransmission, or republication is prohibited.

Copyright 2017 by Avalon Energy® Services LLC

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In The News – Avalon Energy Services, LLC

In his year-end review titled, “Gas Industry Looks Optimistically at 2017,” PointLogic author Kevin Adler quotes our COO, Jim McDonnell.  Scroll down to the bottom of the report which you can find here.

The Avalon Advantage – Visit our website at www.AvalonEnergy.US, email us at info@avalonenergy.us, or call us at 888-484-8096.

Please feel free to share this article.  If you do, please email or post the web link.  Unauthorized copying, retransmission, or republication is prohibited.

Copyright 2017 by Avalon Energy® Services LLC