PJM 2025/2026 Capacity Base Residual Auction Results

PJM 2025/2026 Capacity Base Residual Auction Results

PJM recently concluded its capacity Base Residual Auction (BRA) for Planning Year (PY) 2025/26.  The resulting prices, compared to previous recent auctions, are significantly higher.  

For PY 2024/25, the RTO capacity price is $28.92/MW-day.  

For PY 2025/26, the RTO capacity price cleared at $269.92/MW-day, a more than nine-fold increase.  

Two delivery zones within the RTO are constrained, leading to even higher capacity prices.  The DOM zone cleared at $444.26/MW-day.  The BGE zone cleared at $466.35/MW-day.    

Why have capacity prices risen so much?  The primary reasons are related to (i) increased peak-load forecasts within PJM, (ii) generation retirements (primarily coal) leading to less generation offered into the auction, and (iii) updated FERC market rules.  

What does this mean?  For a 1-megawatt customer with a 50% load factor, we estimate the following impact:

For customers in the DOM and BGE zones, the increases are higher.  

The graph below provides a historic perspective of RTO capacity prices.  Over the 18 planning years prior to 2025/26, prices averaged $89.03, with a high of $174.29 (2010/11) and a low of $16.46 (2012/13).  

When will future capacity auctions be held?  Here is PJM’s schedule:

If you have questions about how this will affect your electricity bill or how you might manage your energy supply costs, please contact us. 

The Avalon Advantage – Visit our website at www.avalonenergy.us, call us at 888-484-8096, or email us at [email protected].

Evelyn Teel contributed to this article.

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