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Peak Oil – A Dramatic Turn of Events

In our May 20, 2015 article, we wrote that “Concerns and worry about Peak Oil are overstated and irrelevant.”  The article concluded, “With crude oil supplies increasing and the demand for crude oil slowing, and likely to continue to slow more, demand for crude oil will peak long before dwindling supplies of crude oil become a concern.”  Read the full Avalon Energy Peak Oil article here.

Yesterday, eighteen months later, the Wall Street Journal reported that major and state-owned oil companies are beginning to plan for the “mind-bending scenario” when global oil consumption crests and begins a permanent decline.  In response to this “peak oil demand,” these companies are beginning to increase their investments in petrochemicals, natural gas, cost reduction and alternative energy sources like solar and biofuels.

And, no less an industry player than Saudi Arabia is at the forefront of this trend.  Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, Khalid al Falih is quoted in the WSJ article as stating at a recent conference, “Peak demand will be later than the common dates that are being thrown around, but if it does happen, because we’re building multiple engines for the economy and we’re planning for an economy beyond oil, we’ll be ready.”

A dramatic turn of events.  Predictable, but dramatic nonetheless.

Reference – “Oil Firms Anticipate Day of Reckoning,” The Wall Street Journal, November 28, 2016.

Evelyn Teel contributed to this article.

The Avalon Advantage – Visit our website at www.AvalonEnergy.US, or call us at 888-484-8096.

Please feel free to share this article.  If you do, please email or post the web link.  Unauthorized copying, retransmission, or republication is prohibited.

Copyright 2016 by Avalon Energy® Services LLC

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Are Crude Oil and Natural Gas Reconciling?

Crude oil prices have dropped 38% since June for two reasons.  Shale oil production in the US Bakken, Eagle Ford, and Permian basins has increased dramatically – by more than 4 million barrels per day since 2008.  At the same time, worldwide demand for crude oil has declined as a result of slowing economies in China and Europe.

Starting in January 2012, the US crude oil benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), bounced around $100/Bbl (dollars per barrel), rose above $105/Bbl in June this summer, and is now trading below $65/Bbl.  Natural gas prices fell below $2.00/mmBtu (dollars per million British Thermal Units) during April of 2012, rose above $6/mmBtu during the Polar Vortex during January of this year, and have since fallen below $4.00/mmBtu.

The graph below presents crude oil and natural gas prices on an energy equivalent basis in common units of $/mmBtu.  Starting in January 2012, crude oil bounced around $17/mmBtu, rose above $18/mmBtu in June this summer, and is now trading below $12/mmBtu.

We reported previously on the once wide gap between crude oil and natural gas energy equivalent prices:  Crude Oil and Natural Gas Get a Divorce and Crude Oil and Natural Gas Move To Different Hemispheres.

During April 2014, crude oil reached more than nine times the energy equivalent price of natural gas.  That ratio is now 2.8X.  The graph below shows how this ratio has fallen over the last three years.

While crude oil prices and natural gas prices exhibit little correlation, crude oil prices are highly correlated with fuel oil and diesel prices.  Implications of a declining crude oil to natural gas price ratio include:

  • As natural gas prices spike in pipeline capacity constrained markets this winter, it may be more economical to use fuel oil for power generation than natural gas.
  • The economics associated with converting residential fuel oil furnaces to natural gas become less compelling.
  • The economics associated with converting diesel or gasoline fueled vehicles to compressed natural gas or electricity will worsen, and the payback period associated with existing conversions will be extended further out in time.
  • US liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports will become less competitive in overseas markets where natural gas prices are contractually tied to crude oil prices.
  • Petrochemical facilities that can use both crude oil and natural gas as feedstock may switch more and more to crude oil.

It now appears that crude oil and natural gas may be moving back to the same hemisphere and, possibly, reconciling.

The Avalon Advantage – Visit our website at www.avalonenergy.us, call us at 888-484-8096, or email us at jmcdonnell@avalonenergy.us.

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Copyright 2014 by Avalon Energy® Services LLC

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Natural Gas Market Update

The above graph looks at natural gas prices going back to January 1997.

Natural gas prices have retreated from the Polar Vortex bump and remain relatively low by historical standards.

The prices plotted above are not adjusted for inflation.  If they were in 2014 dollars, the left side of the curve would be more elevated.  In real dollars, today’s prices are lower than they appear on the graph.

Looking to the futures market, the effects of the Polar Vortex lingered into the summer over concern about whether or not there was sufficient supply of natural gas to refill storage after the dramatic drawdowns during January and February.

This is highlighted on the left side of the blue line above which plots the 36 month futures curve as of 4/29/14.  This curve is backwardated, meaning the months close in time were priced above the months further out in time.

The near dated months have since retreated as concerns about storage refill have diminished because of (a) greater natural gas production than expected, and (b) unusually mild summer weather reducing summer time electricity load and the related reduced demand for natural gas.

This is highlighted on the red line above which plots the 36 month futures curve as of 10/24/14.  The months closer in time have declined significantly with the December ’14 contract down $1.26/mmBtu or 25%.  The entire curve has declined as well, though to a lesser extent.   The futures curve is no longer backwardated.

The table above shows the simple average of the monthly prices of the 36 and 48 month forward curves as of 4/29 and 10/24.

Overall, the 36 month futures curve is down 14.7% while the 48 month curve is down 12.7%.

The graph above looks further ahead at the 60 month futures curve which indicates that the market expects prices to rise.

While the curve is upward sloping, five years into the future, natural gas is trading well below $5/mmBtu.

Summary:

Over the past six months, market sentiment has swung from concerns that natural gas supply cannot keep up with storage injections – and upcoming winter demand – to the reverse.  Now the talk is more about an oversupplied market.  While there is low correlation between crude oil and natural gas prices, the recent decline in crude oil prices has contributed to overall bearish sentiment.  Generally, the best time to go long is when the market sentiment is most negative.  We may be approaching that point for natural gas.

The Avalon Advantage – Visit our website at www.avalonenergy.us, call us at 888-484-8096, or email us at jmcdonnell@avalonenergy.us.

Notes:

Please feel free to share this article.  If you do, please email or post the web link.  Unauthorized copying, retransmission, or republication is prohibited.

Copyright 2014 by Avalon Energy® Services LLC

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Time to Draw Down the Strategic Petroleum Reserve? – Part 2

It has been argued that there is too much crude oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and that it should be drawn down.  Arguments have been made that one should “tie the amount of insurance you carry to the size of the need.”  By that argument, because domestic production is up and “hit record levels in 2011,” and imports “have dropped by more than 20% since 2006,” the reserve is “just too big and full” (see note 1).  It has also been claimed that over the first 30 years of the SPR’s existence, “its volume averaged fewer than 550 million barrels – 75% of capacity” (see note 2).

Background

The creation and stocking of the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve was enabled by the Energy Policy and Conservation Act of 1975 (EPCA).  The EPCA stated that the purpose of the Act was “…to provide for the creation of a Strategic Petroleum Reserve capable of reducing the impact of severe energy supply interruptions.”    See previous discussion concerning the SPR here.  The SPR can hold a total of 727 million barrels of crude oil and is currently at 96% capacity.

Over time, how much crude has been held in the SPR?   

The graph below shows the stock of crude oil in the SPR since its creation.

Over its life, the SPR has held an average of 519 million barrels of oil, which is 72% of its capacity.  As you can see on the graph, it took many years to construct and fill the SPR.  In fact, it was as recently as December 27, 2009 that the SPR actually reached its full capacity of 727 million barrels.  However, the many years it has taken to fill the SPR isn’t relevant concerning the working level for which it was designed.  The SPR was intentionally filled slowly so as to not appreciably affect the market price of petroleum products.   This has been accomplished in part by using royalty-in-kind crude oil from US Outer Continental Shelf leases.  In 2005, EPCA was amended to increase the size of the SPR to one billion barrels, in part as recognition that US crude oil consumption has increased since 1975.  Efforts to expand the SPR to one billion barrels were suspended in 2011.

How exposed are we to foreign imports?

Today, crude oil imports represent 42% of US consumption.  The graph below shows the ratio of net imports to US consumption plotted over time.

In 1975, when the Energy Policy and Conservation Act was enacted, crude imports represented 36% of total US consumption.  After that, imports rose to 47% during December 1977, declined to 27% in October 1985, and then generally rose again to a peak of 66% during October 2005.  Since October 2005, imports have fallen to 42%.

Conclusion

While it is accurate to say that imports have fallen from a high of 66% to 42% today, imports are still above 36%, the level of imports that existed at the time EPCA was enacted in 1975.  While US dependence on crude oil imports has dropped over the last seven years, today it is greater than it was in 1975.  Relying on the original intent when the SPR was established, there is no need to draw down the SPR.

Note 1 – Opinion piece by Austan D. Goolsbee in the The Wall Street Journal, April 10, 2012.

Note 2 – IBID.

The Avalon Advantage – Visit our website at www.avalonenergy.us, call us at 888-484- 8096, or email us at jmcdonnell@avalonenergy.us.

Copyright 2012 by Avalon Energy® Services LLC

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Keystone XL Pipeline – Where’s the Noise?

As the author notes below, on September 5, 2012, TransCanada (NYSE: TRP), the Canadian energy company hoping to build the controversial Keystone XL pipeline, submitted its final re-routing plan to the Nebraska Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) and the U.S. State Department.  This submission represents the latest step in what has become a more than four year approval process to build the 1,700 mile, $7 billion pipeline stretching from Alberta, Canada to the Texas Gulf Coast.  If completed, this pipeline would transport up to 830,000 barrels of heavy crude per day from oil sand (or tar sand) deposits in western Canada to Steele City, Nebraska and from the Cushing, Oklahoma oil trading hub to refineries in Texas.  It would be integrated into the existing Keystone pipeline system, which currently extends from the Canadian deposits to refineries in Illinois, Oklahoma, and other Midwestern states.  The new project would both increase the Keystone’s transport capacity and link it with Gulf Coast refineries more technologically suited to process the heavy crude produced from oil sands.

The Keystone XL Pipeline was very much in the news a few months ago.  Lately, there has not been much reporting on the pipeline.  Here’s an interesting write-up on the history and current status of the Keystone XL Pipeline – click here.

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Time To Draw Down The Strategic Petroleum Reserve?

What is the Strategic Petroleum Reserve?

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve consists of a number of large underground caverns created in naturally occurring salt diapirs (domes) along the Gulf Coast of the United States.  The caverns were created by drilling wells into the salt domes, dissolving the salt with water, pumping the salt water solution to the surface and disposing of the solution.

The creation of the SPR was enabled in 1975 by the Federal government in response to the 1973-74 Middle East oil embargo.   More specifically, the Energy Policy and Conservation Act of 1975 stated the purpose was “…to provide for the creation of a Strategic Petroleum Reserve capable of reducing the impact of severe energy supply interruptions.”   Maintained by the US Department of Energy, the SPR, with about 700 million barrels of capacity, is the world’s largest government-owned emergency crude oil stockpile.

The Energy Policy and Conservation Act defines “severe energy supply interruption” as “… a national energy supply shortage which the President determines – (A) is, or is likely to be, of significant scope and duration, and of an emergency nature; (B) may cause major adverse impact on national safety or the national economy; and (C) results, or is likely to result, from (i) an interruption in the supply of imported petroleum products, (ii) an interruption in the supply of domestic petroleum products, or (iii) sabotage or an act of God.”

The SPR currently holds about 700 million barrels of crude oil and is about 96% full.  With a maximum draw down rate of about 4.5 million barrels per day, at the US’s current consumption rate of 18.7 million barrels per day, the SPR could supply about 24% of our domestic needs for a little more than five months.

There have been seven petroleum sales from the SPR, four of them significant:

In addition, there have been 10 petroleum loans made by the SPR.  Loans are made to oil companies to help resolve logistical problems.  Oil is returned to the SPR along with additional oil as interest.

Stocks of crude oil in the SPR over time are graphed below:

What do the fundamentals look like in the crude oil market?

Currently the US market for crude oil is adequately supplied.  According to the Energy Information Administration, demand for crude oil in the US is expected to decline again this year to a 15 year low of 18.7 million barrels per day.  At the same time, US crude oil production continues to rise.  Crude oil production in North Dakota alone was nearly 700,000 barrels per day this past June, up from 350,000 barrels per day in January 2011. For a strong indicator of how adequately supplied the market is, look at the market’s response to Hurricane Isaac.  Crude oil prices rose some, but not much.  Previous hurricanes in the US Gulf Coast, or even the threat of hurricanes, have driven prices up significantly.

Are there any supply disruptions in the world oil markets?

Sanctions against Iran have led to a decline in Iranian output to about 2.5 million barrels per day, down from 3.5 million barrels per day at the beginning of 2012.  At the same time, Iraqi oil production continues to recover.  For the first time in over 20 years Iraqi production this summer was greater than Iranian production – 3 million barrels per day versus Iran’s 2.9 million barrels per day.  Last month Saudi Arabia produced as much as 9.9 million barrels per day, and has indicated that it may increase production to 10 million barrels per day, a 30-year high.

International supply disruptions have become less of a threat to the US economy.  The US currently imports about 42% of its crude oil.  This is down from more than 60% as recently as 2006.  And, the EIA expects imports to drop again in 2013 to 39%.  This would be the first time US imports have been below 40% since 1991.

So, if the market is adequately supplied, and supply disruptions are not an issue, why are crude oil prices elevated?

First, monetary easing on the part of the Federal Reserve has led to higher crude oil prices.  Crude oil is traded in dollars.  As the US money supply increases, the value of the US dollar relative to other world currencies declines.  Non-US oil companies have to raise their price in dollar terms just to keep the economics even in their home currencies.

The second driver is geopolitical risk.  Tensions in the Middle East play a role as oil consumers and traders tend to increase inventories (increase demand) as a protective measure in the event that there is a disruption of supply.  This risk tends to drive up spot crude oil prices as well as the short end of the crude oil forward curve.

A good way to see the interplay between the seemingly opposing states of (a) adequately supplied crude oil markets and (b) elevated crude oil prices is to look at the forward curve.  Only the short end of the forward curve has risen.  Beyond May 2013 (8 months), the forward curve is downward sloping, meaning the market expects crude oil prices to decline in the future.  Interestingly, the short end of the forward curve fell more than 7% over the past trading week.  See graph below.

Is there good reason to draw down the SPR?

There are no “severe energy supply interruptions,” and market fundamentals are supply heavy.  US crude oil production is up and continues to rise.  Imports to the US have declined and continue to do so.  There is more than adequate supply in the market to offset reduced exports from Iran.  While there may be many political reasons to draw down the SPR, there are currently no strategic reasons to draw down the SPR based on market fundamentals.

The Avalon Advantage – Visit our website at www.avalonenergy.us, call us at 888-484- 8096, or email us at jmcdonnell@avalonenergy.us.

Copyright 2012 by Avalon Energy® Services LLC

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Long Tailed Fish Swimming East

Markets adjust.  There are perhaps few better examples of that adage than the crude oil and natural gas markets.  One way of looking at how these two markets adjust is through the rotary rig count.  Baker Hughes keeps track of the number of active drilling rigs in the US (and also internationally).

Since July 1987, the number of active drilling rigs in the US has been as low as 488 (April 1999) and as high as 2,031 (September 2008).

The September 2008 rig count peak occurred three months after crude oil and natural gas monthly average prices peaked at $133.88/barrel and $10.28/mcf, respectively.  The rig count then followed the subsequent collapse of energy prices.  Crude oil fell to $39.09/barrel by February 2009 and soon thereafter, the rig count bottomed at 876 rigs in June 2009.  Since this bottoming in the rig count, the count has risen dramatically over the past three years to the current level of 1,945 active rigs.  The following graphs present historical monthly average crude oil and natural gas prices.

Baker Hughes also classifies operating drilling rigs by their primary target – oil or natural gas.  The rig count broken out by these two targets is depicted on the graph below.

Since the total rig count bottomed out in June 2009, the contributions to this total number between oil and natural gas directed rigs have changed significantly.  The number of natural gas directed rigs tracked the subsequent rise and fall of natural gas prices.  The number of crude oil directed rigs, however, has been on a one way track upwards, paralleling the sustained run up in crude oil prices.

Compared to the summer of 2009, today there are 52 fewer rigs exploring primarily for natural gas and 1,149 more rigs exploring for crude oil.

The graph below shows the active US crude oil and natural gas rig count on a percentage basis.

The change in focus from drilling for natural gas to drilling for crude oil has been a longer term trend, going back to the summer of 2005.  Seven years ago, about one in ten rigs were focused on crude oil.  Today, for more than two-thirds of the rigs, crude oil is the primary target.

So far we have looked at data back to 1987.  During this period, today’s count of 1,945 active rigs is close to the 2,031 maximum.  Looking back further in time, how does this compare?

Today’s total rig count is less than half the 4,530 rigs that were operating during late 1981.  Advances in drilling exploration techniques such as 3-D seismic, horizontal drilling and centralized drilling pads have increased success rates in exploratory drilling and increased drilling rig productivity.

The Avalon Advantage – Visit our website at www.avalonenergy.us, call us at 888-484- 8096, or email us at jmcdonnell@avalonenergy.us.

Copyright 2012 by Avalon Energy® Services LLC

 

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Crude Oil and Natural Gas Move to Different Hemispheres

On December 16, 2011, we looked at the relationship between natural gas and crude oil prices (see “Crude Oil and Natural Gas Get a Divorce” here).  We looked at how historically, on an energy equivalent basis ($/mmBtu), crude oil (West Texas Intermediate at Cushing, Oklahoma) traded at about a 50% premium to natural gas at the Henry Hub in Louisiana, reflecting crude oil’s greater energy density, portability, and flexibility.  We also looked at how, more recently, natural gas and crude oil prices had become decoupled and how the ratio of the price of crude oil to the price of natural gas had moved from the 1.5x historical multiple to, in December 2011, the astounding level of 4.9x.

What is the relationship now?   

From December 2011 to the end of March 2012, crude oil prices continued to rise, from $99.41/Bbl to $106.16/Bbl, while natural gas prices continued to decline, from $2.99/mmBtu to $2.17/mmBtu.  The primary drivers of these price changes have been the Iranian oil embargo (crude oil) and the US overhang of natural gas in storage.  The graph below shows monthly average crude oil and natural gas prices on an energy equivalent basis through March.

This continued divergence in price movement drove the energy equivalent crude oil/natural gas price ratio from 4.9x to 8.5x at the end of March, as shown on the graph below.

Where does the relationship appear to be headed in the future? 

As of April 13, 2012, the forward market expects the price of crude oil to rise over the next nine months, from $17.93/mmBtu ($103.64.Bbl) in May 2012 to $18.28/mmBtu ($105.64/Bbl) by January 2013, and then to decline.  At the same time, the market expects natural gas prices to rise from $1.98/mmBtu in May 2012 to $3.23/mmBtu over the same time period.  Expectations are that crude oil will fall to $15.81/mmBtu ($91.41/Bbl) by December 2017 while natural gas will continue to rise but remain under $5.00/mmBtu over that 68 month period.  These data are presented in table and graph format below:

The May contract prices for WTI crude oil and natural gas at $17.93/mmBtu ($103.64/Bbl) and $1.98/mmBtu, respectively, mean that crude oil is trading at NINE TIMES the price of natural gas on an energy equivalent basis.  From a historical multiple of 1.5x to 9.0x now, crude oil and natural gas not only got a divorce, they moved to different hemispheres.  Expectations are that this ratio will decline, but only to 3.2x by December 2017.

The graphs below show the (i) historical and forward price and (ii) relative relationship data on individual graphs:

The Avalon Advantage – Visit our website at www.avalonenergy.us, call us at 888-484- 8096, or email us at jmcdonnell@avalonenergy.us.

Copyright 2012 by Avalon Energy® Services LLC